Football Picks for Sep30-Oct1
My football picks for this weekend:
Pitt at Rutgers
line: Pitt -1, o/u 48
This is an interesting game to handicap. Pitt has been pretty damn awful this year and has a bad coach (Wannstedt). Pitt's offense is bad, but its defense is decent. Rutgers is the opposite.
Pitt has been dominant in the series, winning the past 4 matchups. On paper i would expect Pitt to win easily. But...
The key for this game is that it is a nationally televised game (fri nite espn2). For a team like Rutgers, this does not happen often, and especially at home. I think Rutgers will be extremely fired up early in the game, and Pitt will be a bit apprehensive, especially with their struggling offense. I expect Rutgers to jump out a lead by halftime. In the 2nd half Pitt might wake up and realize they're playing Rutgers and win, or they might not.
Pick: bet on Rutgers for the 1st half.
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Minnesota at Penn State
line: Minn -2.5, o/u 50
Minnesota at Penn State, an interesting matchup. Minnesota has a very good team this year and they finally overcame their big ten opener jinx by coming from behind to beat Purdue last week. I think we have a fired up Minnesota team that sees its big ten championship hopes intact. Minnesota also has been very good vs PSU recently, winning the past 2 matchups.
PSU barely beat NW. PSU is an ok team, but they have a very inconsistent quarterback in Michael Robinson. Minnesota's defense is 100x better than Northwestern's. Its really hard for me to be confident in an inconsistent quarterback. Plus with series history, Minnesota's confidence, and a quality running game, i think Minnesota is gonna win. WIth the line at -2.5, if they win by a FG then i win $$$. Final score 24-17 Minnesota.
Pick: Minn -2.5
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Notre Dame at Purdue
line: Purdue -3, o/u 58 or 57.5
In a rivalry game like this i expect both teams to play conservative and not try and make major mistakes. I dont expect either team to dominate the other, instead i see a hard fought game that will be won in the 4th quarter.
Although Purdue and ND have explosive offenses, in rivalry games like this i expect the game to be close and relatively low scoring. Lots of FGs and fewer TDs. In the past 4 years the total on this game has never been higher than 57, and during some of those years Purdue had an explosive offense. I dont expect that to change this year. I expect a final score of around 27-20, not sure who will win. So take the under
Pick: Under 57.5 or 58
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Illinois at Iowa
Line: Iowa -18, o/u 52
I'm only betting a few bucks on this game because i'm an Illini and i'm trying to avoid playing them unless i know its a lock. Anyways, Illinois is not as bad as they looked last week and Iowa is not as good as they were last year. Iowa should win easily, but I'm looking for Illinois to get a back door cover here.
Pick Illinois +18 *not a major play, only for my tv watching purposes
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Michigan at Michigan State
Line: MSU -5.5, o/u 57
Chad Henne has looked really bad in the 2 big games Michigan has played this year (ND, at Wisc). Michigan could not shut down a 1-dimensional Wisconsin offense. MSU looks really good this year and has a powerful balanced offense. Michigan had a tough game last week vs Wisc, MSU has a laugher vs Illinois. I dont see how Michigan is gonna be able to score enough to hang with MSU, and I think the spread of less than a TD is generous. I expect a score of 31-21 MSU in this game.
Pick: MSU -5.5
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Virginia Tech at West Virginia
Line: VT -10, o/u -41.5
WV, a real good team, is getting 10pts at home. VT is good, but they only beat an average NCSt team on the road by 4pts. WV played very close to best vs ECU last week, only winning 20-15, while VT blew out GT at home. I think WV is saving themselves to play their best game of the year against VT, and I think they might just win. I'm looking at this more as a speculative game, since WV is +300 on the moneyline. I'm probably gonna throw $20 or so on WV to win outright here.
Pick: WVU +300 moneyline *speculative wager only, not for primary unit betting
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Other games worth considering:
Florida at Alabama
Line: Florida -3.5 o/u 48
Tough SEC conference matchup between 2 very good, athletic defenses. Expect similar results to the FL-Tenn game. Low scoring game.
Pick: under 48
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Washington St at Oregon St
Line: OSU -1.5
gut feel game. take the home team here. Wazzoo has a new QB, Alex Brink, and this is his conference opener. OSU is not that bad, they've just played 2 really good teams the last 2 weeks (at Louisville, Arizona State). Wazzoo will be much easier for them
Pick: OSU -1.5
Pitt at Rutgers
line: Pitt -1, o/u 48
This is an interesting game to handicap. Pitt has been pretty damn awful this year and has a bad coach (Wannstedt). Pitt's offense is bad, but its defense is decent. Rutgers is the opposite.
Pitt has been dominant in the series, winning the past 4 matchups. On paper i would expect Pitt to win easily. But...
The key for this game is that it is a nationally televised game (fri nite espn2). For a team like Rutgers, this does not happen often, and especially at home. I think Rutgers will be extremely fired up early in the game, and Pitt will be a bit apprehensive, especially with their struggling offense. I expect Rutgers to jump out a lead by halftime. In the 2nd half Pitt might wake up and realize they're playing Rutgers and win, or they might not.
Pick: bet on Rutgers for the 1st half.
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Minnesota at Penn State
line: Minn -2.5, o/u 50
Minnesota at Penn State, an interesting matchup. Minnesota has a very good team this year and they finally overcame their big ten opener jinx by coming from behind to beat Purdue last week. I think we have a fired up Minnesota team that sees its big ten championship hopes intact. Minnesota also has been very good vs PSU recently, winning the past 2 matchups.
PSU barely beat NW. PSU is an ok team, but they have a very inconsistent quarterback in Michael Robinson. Minnesota's defense is 100x better than Northwestern's. Its really hard for me to be confident in an inconsistent quarterback. Plus with series history, Minnesota's confidence, and a quality running game, i think Minnesota is gonna win. WIth the line at -2.5, if they win by a FG then i win $$$. Final score 24-17 Minnesota.
Pick: Minn -2.5
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Notre Dame at Purdue
line: Purdue -3, o/u 58 or 57.5
In a rivalry game like this i expect both teams to play conservative and not try and make major mistakes. I dont expect either team to dominate the other, instead i see a hard fought game that will be won in the 4th quarter.
Although Purdue and ND have explosive offenses, in rivalry games like this i expect the game to be close and relatively low scoring. Lots of FGs and fewer TDs. In the past 4 years the total on this game has never been higher than 57, and during some of those years Purdue had an explosive offense. I dont expect that to change this year. I expect a final score of around 27-20, not sure who will win. So take the under
Pick: Under 57.5 or 58
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Illinois at Iowa
Line: Iowa -18, o/u 52
I'm only betting a few bucks on this game because i'm an Illini and i'm trying to avoid playing them unless i know its a lock. Anyways, Illinois is not as bad as they looked last week and Iowa is not as good as they were last year. Iowa should win easily, but I'm looking for Illinois to get a back door cover here.
Pick Illinois +18 *not a major play, only for my tv watching purposes
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Michigan at Michigan State
Line: MSU -5.5, o/u 57
Chad Henne has looked really bad in the 2 big games Michigan has played this year (ND, at Wisc). Michigan could not shut down a 1-dimensional Wisconsin offense. MSU looks really good this year and has a powerful balanced offense. Michigan had a tough game last week vs Wisc, MSU has a laugher vs Illinois. I dont see how Michigan is gonna be able to score enough to hang with MSU, and I think the spread of less than a TD is generous. I expect a score of 31-21 MSU in this game.
Pick: MSU -5.5
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Virginia Tech at West Virginia
Line: VT -10, o/u -41.5
WV, a real good team, is getting 10pts at home. VT is good, but they only beat an average NCSt team on the road by 4pts. WV played very close to best vs ECU last week, only winning 20-15, while VT blew out GT at home. I think WV is saving themselves to play their best game of the year against VT, and I think they might just win. I'm looking at this more as a speculative game, since WV is +300 on the moneyline. I'm probably gonna throw $20 or so on WV to win outright here.
Pick: WVU +300 moneyline *speculative wager only, not for primary unit betting
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Other games worth considering:
Florida at Alabama
Line: Florida -3.5 o/u 48
Tough SEC conference matchup between 2 very good, athletic defenses. Expect similar results to the FL-Tenn game. Low scoring game.
Pick: under 48
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Washington St at Oregon St
Line: OSU -1.5
gut feel game. take the home team here. Wazzoo has a new QB, Alex Brink, and this is his conference opener. OSU is not that bad, they've just played 2 really good teams the last 2 weeks (at Louisville, Arizona State). Wazzoo will be much easier for them
Pick: OSU -1.5
posted by Monish at 1:37 PM
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